Level Up: Mastering Competitive Gaming
Part 1: The Introduction to Your Journey
Games and competitions have been around since the dawn of human history. Whether it be tossing a ball around, play fighting, or engaging in complex digital warfare via computers, games at their core have been integral to human culture and are likely to stick around as long as we are. Thanks to the rise of eSports in the last decade, players are more connected to competition than ever before. Even for tabletop games that have no digital component, the Internet allows us to facilitate global competition, bringing together diverse communities from all corners of the world.
And I'm here to teach you to be the best you can possibly be.
My name is Joshua, and I'll be your guide on this journey. I've been playing games competitively for over 20 years, honing my skills and strategies across various formats. My adventures have taken me all over the country for tournaments in Super Smash Brothers, Pokémon, Duel Masters, Dreamblade, Battle Spirits, and Kaijudo. I've had the thrill of winning money playing most of these games, clinching victories at numerous events, and earning prestigious invites to higher-level tournaments.
For those unfamiliar with some of the games I've mentioned, my experience spans video games, card games, and tabletop dice games. Each of these platforms has its own unique challenges and strategies, and I've delved deep into mastering them all. More on these adventures later, but for now, I want to lay the groundwork for who I am and why you might care about what I have to say.
In my early years, I remember the excitement of my first major tournament—a Super Smash Brothers melee competition. I was nervous, surrounded by highly skilled players. The problem was, I didn't realize I was surrounded by highly skilled players. Like most people who "lead" their gaming group, I thought I was easily the best there. I didn't win, but the experience taught me invaluable lessons about perseverance and adaptability. From there, my journey expanded into other realms of competitive gaming, each offering new challenges and opportunities for growth.
Not only was I not the best, I wasn't even close to being the best.
This blog post is the first of eight that I will be sharing, covering a wide array of topics like goal setting, knowledge acquisition, travel, practice routines, managing emotions, the role of luck in games, and much more. Each topic is designed to give you insights and practical advice to elevate your competitive gaming experience.
My hope is that you'll be able to take something from my experiences and apply it to your own competitive gaming strategies, whether you aspire to be a pro gamer or simply want to improve at the game you love. Together, we'll explore the depths of competitive gaming, uncovering secrets and strategies that can help you achieve your personal best.
Stay tuned for the next post, where we'll dive into the importance of setting clear and achievable goals in your gaming journey. Let's embark on this adventure together, and I promise you, that the road to gaming excellence will be both challenging and rewarding.
I'm always in the lab, working on the best ways to grow that competitive mindset!
Next time I'll be back to talk about setting the right goals for you! GL;HF
-- Joshua (Bauerdad)
Part 2: Achieving Greatness: Goal Setting for Serious Gamers
I'm back today with post number 2, but it's really the first thing any of us should consider when competing in a game. What do I want to get out of this? Maybe you want to "be the very best", like Pokémon protagonist Ash Ketchum. Perhaps your goal is to get invited to a large event for the game of your choosing. Maybe your dream is to win a local tournament at your favorite card shop. Maybe you just like competition for its own sake, and you want to see how far you can push the dial.
Regardless of your aspirations, it is critically important that you understand what they are and what it takes to get there.
WARNING: There is one higher-level goal that is even more important than competition, and that's fun. At their core games are supposed to be fun. Competition is always hard work, but it is so important that you keep the underlying fun in focus, too. There's no point in climbing the ranks if you rob yourself of all the joy and fun while getting there.
Stop and think. What is your goal for the game you are playing?
Once you know it, let's move on.
I'm a big fan of "you can do anything you set your mind to" but let's face it: games are not the most important thing in your life. People are complex and lead multi-faceted lives. Depending on your season of life, you may find that games take a back seat to work, school, friends, family, kids, other hobbies, and the list goes on.
Life pulls us in many directions. It's important to know how much of ourselves we can responsibly give to gaming.
No matter what your gaming goal is, it is going to require time and money. Even the smallest of games and the most modest of goals need both of these things. This is the next thing that you need to seriously think about when stating your goals.
When I was fifteen years old, I was competing in the Duel Masters invitational circuit, hoping to secure an invite to Los Angeles for the Continental Championships. As a teenager who passionately hated the outdoors, I had plenty of time to dedicate to my craft. Unfortunately, I had basically no money. Thankfully Duel Masters cards were not particularly expensive, and my core gaming group was good enough to win additional cards as prizing for events. I'll share more on that season in a future post, but the point is that this was a great fit for me.
Infinite time and basically no money was a great fit for 15-year old Josh and Duel Masters
When considering your gaming goal, you need to think about your time and money:
Time - no matter how fast your game plays, time will be required of you. If you have a roommate who also plays, games of Super Smash Bros can be completed in mere minutes on a moment's notice. If you're playing a team-based game like Valorant or say, basketball, you'll need more time both to plan and play these games. In order to improve at a game, you have to play it and you have to play it a lot. Understanding this is crucial to reaching your goals.
Money - again, no matter how simple your game is in materials, there's a very good chance you will need to spend money at some point. Card games require cards, and most of them require that you continue to get more cards over time. Video games are a bit different, but typically require more costly equipment ahead of time.
Time and Money also tie into events for your game, not just playing it. Locations and times of events/tournaments will play a role in meeting your goals. If your goal involves an invitational circuit (e.g. Pokémon), you will need to attend many events in order to secure that invitation. For those with grand gaming goals, this is likely to be your biggest spend on time and money. Be aware of it!
There is no absolute rule for what you can accomplish in a given time or with a given budget. The purpose of today is to simply set your mind on these things to better understand what you can contribute to your success.
Now that you're thinking about what you want and what it will take to get there, next we are going to talk about practice. You may have heard that practice makes perfect. I'm here to tell you that proper practice will get you there much faster.
The third installment releases Monday!
Practice Smarter, Not Harder: Maximizing Your Gaming Sessions
GL;HF
-- Joshua (Bauerdad)
Part 3: Practice Smarter, Not Harder: Maximizing Your Gaming Sessions
Now that we've gotten started, it's time to talk about the most fundamental idea to meeting your goal. Whether you mean to hit silver rank on ladder or win the largest tournament of the year, you will have to improve at the game.
And this means, you need to practice.
Today's post covers four tips for getting the most out of your practice!
1. Practice In The Way You Will Compete
This may seem obvious, but it still bears saying. You need to know "how" you will be expected to compete and then mirror that in your practice. If your local Smash Bros tournament uses 4 stocks (lives) and an 8 minute timer, don't practice 3 stocks, no timer, with a bunch of items turned on. Some card tournaments allow the use of a "side board", which is a small selection of cards that you can use to slightly change your deck between games (in a best of 3 set). If your game allows a side board, practice using a side board. In the most recent competitive season, Pokémon (video game) players have been competing with "open team sheets". This means players know the moves, items, etc. on the opposing team. This is the regional standard, so if you're a Pokémon player, you should be practicing that way.
The reason for this is twofold, and they work into each other. Firstly, practicing in your competitive standard will make your more comfortable in the competitive standard. You don't want to sit down for a high stakes tournament, adrenaline flowing, and also have to adjust the game you've been playing!
Secondly, practicing in the tournament standard will make you better at it. Just like the game itself, there is also a framework in which you compete that ought to be mastered. As you get better, you'll get more comfortable. And the reverse is also true!
2. Practice With Friends
Having friends to share your gaming experience with is one of the (if not the singular) best way to enhance your enjoyment of games. Lucky for us, it's also a fantastic way to improve your practice. You might think of this as simply "playing against your buddy", but there are actually more strategies you can take advantage of. I'm going to talk about a few of the ways that you can practice with friends and then the benefits!
Playing against your friend (1v1) - This is what most people picture when I say "practice with friends"
Playing "with" your friend (2v1) - This is playing a 1v1 game while having a friend watch you or coach you through it. Especially with the aid of Discord and other video chatting technology, having one (or more!) friends sit on a call with you while you play a few games is easier than ever. While this kind of thing is super illegal in tournament play, it's a fantastic way to rapidly gain different insights. It's also a very fun way to play, regardless of if you're the player or a coach.
Playing as a rotation (1v1, winner stays in) - This type of play involves a group, but only two players "in" at a time. It's a good way to keep interest while you have "more players than spots" and it also keeps a competitive edge on the practice. Also, as a fun mix up, you can say that the loser of each game stays in. This keeps the practice where it is most needed!
Better together!
Why practice with friends? First of all, it's more fun! Enjoying an activity with someone you know and like is always better than sparring with strangers or faceless names on the Internet. Secondly, the information sharing is greater. Gaming with people you know will naturally increase the chances that you talk about your key games afterward, or even days and weeks later. Playing in the rotation or coaching methods also allows you to see different perspectives while sharpening your own skills. Finally, the quality of the practice itself is better. Oftentimes our friends are the people most equipped to defeat us. They know our favorite characters, cards, moves, and strategies. They are also the ones most likely to catch us in bad habits and strike our weaknesses. In this way, you can build each other up even further!
3. Analyze Your Own Play
I'm tempted to say this one is the most important, but honestly, they're all pretty important. Let me know if the following has ever happened to you: You're playing your game. In the final stretch, you know that for better or worse it will all be over soon. Your focus is at its best and you are absolutely locked in. You don't remember where you are and don't perceive anything except the game in front of you. The game crescendos on its deciding moment.
And you lost.
Frustrated and angry, you grab your things and rush off to the next game, or you immediately queue up another round of whatever you're playing.
Ties have almost no nutritional value so they would not contribute to quality practice
You should never, ever do this.
Obviously, this is easier said than done. Even the most level-headed gamers find themselves angry at the end of a well-fought (but lost) game every now and again. In fact, I'll be covering this in a later post. But if you do this, you cheat yourself out of a fundamental way to enhance your practice: analyzing your play. If you've heard about the "10,000-hour rule", you might be tricked into thinking that playing more games is better and you should always try to play as many practice games as possible in order to give yourself the most improvement. You want to make sure you're getting quality practice games and not just quantity. This means pausing and taking the time to reflect upon how you're approaching your play.
After every game you play, you should be able to cleanly answer the following questions and write down the answers.
Who was my opponent, when did this game happen, and what (character, deck, etc.) did they play against me?
What strategy or strategies did I attempt to use this game?
What moves, cards, characters were most useful to me this game?
What moves, cards, characters were most useful to my opponent this game?
What mistakes were made this game (mine and opponents)?
Considering 2-5, why did I win/lose this game?
What do I need to do for the next game in order to increase my chances of winning?
If you read "write down the answers" and thought "I'm not going to do that", consider this a virtual smack that I'm giving you.
Write it down, I beg of you!
Take notes!! For two big reasons. First, human memory sucks. Even if you think yours doesn't, it does. I've been to countless post-event dinners and after 8-9 rounds of games, people simply don't remember what happened in the early stages of the event. Secondly, this will allow you to more easily spot trends in your play that you can capitalize on (if good) and try to correct (if bad). If you're taking notes on your mistakes during games, you will very quickly realize it if you have a mistake that you are predisposed to. If you're keeping track of "what the best cards are" during your games, you will more easily see over time what cards need to stay (and which can be cut).
4. Don't Focus So Much On Winning/Losing
This might seem counterintuitive, but there's an important truth here about practice. It's such an important truth, that I'm going to highlight it, bold it, and give it italics.
The quality of your practice has nothing to do with how many games you win.
Read it. Memorize it. Write it on your forehead if you have to. It's easy to get caught up in rank and record and think "I'm winning more, so I must be practicing better". If you go back and review my list of questions from the gameplay analysis section, there is not a distinction made between winning and losing. Questions 6 and 7 are equally valid regardless of the game result. Even though your overall goal is to "win more", the quality of your practice isn't measured by it. 10 wins in a row that you don't understand is worthless compared to 10 losses that all resulted in adjustments and growth.
The real quality of your practice is defined by three things:
Your understanding of the tools used by yourself and your opponent
Knowing how and why the game ended at a <win/loss>
Knowing what adjustments you need to make to increase your chances of winning in the future
If you are consistently playing games and keeping up with these three things, you are getting quality practice.
On Friday, we will dive into another important idea that most people get wrong. Knowledge is Power: But How Much Do You Need?
GL;HF
-- Joshua (Bauerdad)
Part 4: Knowledge is Power: But How Much Do You Need?
"ipsa scientia potestas est"
-- Sir Francis Bacon
For the fourth post of my blog series on competitive gaming, I'll be talking about the idea of knowledge. Almost all of you are familiar with the above quote (just maybe not the Latin original). There's a reason it's so well-known. The wisdom extends to many areas of life, including gaming!
Fill it up! The Pokémon type chart isn't going to memorize itself!
When the Duel Masters tournament circuit was running in 2005, there were Invitational tournaments sprinkled all around the country. Five such events were in Texas, and we were committed to attending all of them (which meant begging our mom to take us).
At the time, I was an obsessive collector in addition to an avid player. During the 2005 circuit, there were somewhere around 500 unique Duel Masters cards in existence.
I knew them all. Over my history playing Duel Masters I have never been surprised by a card. Not once. My knowledge encompassed the entirety of the card catalog, and it gave me a certain confidence.
This line of thinking is good to a point, but also has two big problems, depending on the game you are playing.
Memorizing 500 cards, each with a maximum of two functions is not too challenging. Especially not for a dedicated player of the game. But what if you're playing a different game?
With the release of the latest Pokémon Scarlet/Violet DLC, there are over one thousand Pokémon. Your gut reaction might be "Well okay, that's only twice as many things so it can't be that bad". Wrong. It's actually exponentially worse. Each Pokémon can know up to four different moves at one time. The possible pool of moves it can choose from is usually above 30, even for the less diverse Pokémon. And then each Pokémon has the option to hold a special item to enhance its battle capabilities. There are dozens of these to choose from. Oh, and also each Pokémon has an additional special ability. Some have three different ones to choose from!!
Did you know that Waterfall was learnable by Goldeen/Seaking as a regular move in Gen 1 BEFORE becoming an HM in Gold and Silver?
This is the first problem with knowledge in games: sometimes it is completely unreasonable, if not downright impossible, to memorize all of a game's interactions and mechanics.
The second issue is that not all knowledge is practical to know. Let's take this guy for example.
Rillaboom: credit to serebii.net
If you saw this picture and didn't immediately have your feelings hurt a little, you're probably not a Pokémon player. Rillaboom is a grass-type Pokémon introduced in the Pokémon Sword and Shield video games. For reasons I won't bore you with, Rillaboom typically wants to know at least one grass-type move in order to be at its best.
Rillaboom can learn about 20 grass-type moves. Memorizing and preparing for 20 different grass-type moves is simply not useful information. Why? Because only two of them are any good and one more beyond that is niche at best. If you are attempting to cram your brain full of Rillaboom knowledge (and this example is just a small slice of the whole Rillaboom pie), 80% of that effort is completely wasted.
Credit: labmaus.net, my buddy Tim did an amazing job with this site
The above chart (shoutout to Tim and labmaus.net again) shows us that most Rillaboom users gravitate to the same four moves. Note that Grassy Glide and Wood Hammer are the only two Grass-Type moves in this chart. In the last 8 major grassroots events, no other grass moves were used on Rillaboom, not even once.
But Joshua, what if someone catches me off guard with a different move that most people don't use?!
While people do occasionally have deep runs (and even win tournaments) with off-the-wall strategies, it is simply not worth your effort to focus on these things for three reasons:
People mistakenly think a surprise strategy is a good strategy. Surprise can be an element that elevates a good strategy into a great one, but it will never transform a bad strategy into a good one. It's entirely possible to be surprisingly bad.
Your chances of encountering things like this are so slim that almost any time you spend strategizing against it is not going to be a good return on investment. This is especially important for games where you cannot learn everything.
In order to develop or defeat an offbeat strategy, it requires a deep understanding of what the good strategies are and how they work. So even the weird strategies dictate that you have knowledge of the good ones.
During the summer of 2005, I went in with complete and full knowledge of all 500 Duel Masters cards. Over the entirety of that season, I estimate that I encountered barely more than 100 of them. I would be no worse off if I just forgot the "bottom 300" cards.
So what's the solution? How much knowledge is actually enough?
There are three layers to what you should know, and they apply to nearly every single game:
1. You Need to Know Your Own Strategy
Having a good understanding of your own strategy (whether it be a character, a team, a deck, some pieces) is always step 1. This is a (correct) intuition that most people have for fighting games. People tend to stick to a "main character" and learn their favorite one. This is always the best idea. If you are "just okay" with a roster of 50 characters, you are a "just okay" player. If you have a single character that you are amazing with, then guess what? You're an amazing player.
2. You Need to Know the Best Strategies
This is usually referred to as "the metagame". This means that at any given time there will be a certain number of "best" strategies. A very natural consequence of this is, you will be most likely to play against these strategies when you attend tournaments. It naturally follows that you should spend your efforts keeping up with the metagame and knowing your outs against the best strategies.
3. You Need to Know the Unique/Powerful abilities
If you feel confident that you are fully adept at your own strategy and you are confident in your knowledge of the metagame, you can tackle the third layer. Many games will have unique and powerful abilities at your disposal. Many of them will likely fall into the second layer, but some will not. Maybe there is a crazy card that allows you to outright win a game, but it takes ten turns to get it ready. Perhaps there exists a character that has a OHKO move but it's ridiculously hard to aim it properly. Maybe the game has an extremely pitiful and otherwise unremarkable character but has exactly one very good ability. For whatever reason, the strategy has a drawback that prevents it from making an appearance in the second layer. If you have leftover brain space, it's a good idea to dedicate some of it to these unique and powerful abilities that aren't making an appearance in the metagame. This is also your defense against off-the-wall strategies. Almost every such strategy will be taking advantage of one of these "third layer" abilities while making a whole game plan around mitigating its drawbacks.
Learn your strategy, the best strategies, and the leftover unique/powerful abilities. That will always be enough.
On Monday, I'll be talking about travel! On the Road to Victory: Travel Tips for Gamers!
GL;HF
-- Joshua (Bauerdad)
Part 5: On the Road to Victory: Travel Tips for Gamers!
Writer’s Note: This post was supposed to be published on Monday, July 29. Spectrum's 12-hour outage had other plans. Post number 6 is still scheduled for tomorrow!
Unless you have a very modest gaming goal (and there is nothing wrong with a modest goal), you are certain to be traveling for a large event at some point in your journey. For the fifth installment of my Competitive Gaming series, I'll be talking about travel!
Make it stand out
Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference.
For your reading pleasure, I have curated 11 tips from my travel experience. Flying and driving all over for events is something I've become very comfortable with. Travelling properly can greatly enhance your gaming experience while some mistakes can ruin a weekend! Some of the tips should not surprise you, especially if you've traveled recently. Whether you've never left your city or are a seasoned traveler, my hope is that you'll read something today that helps you!
0. Know the ins and outs of the event you are attending
This is tip zero because it will inform almost every single other tip. It should go without saying, but you would be surprised at how often events get ruined (or outright ended) for players by not knowing the details of their event:
When is the event taking place (date, day of week and time)?
Where is the event taking place (name and address)?
Is there a registration requirement? When does it start and stop?
Are there other times you need to be somewhere besides registration? Many events also have a player meeting, team check, deck check, etc. so know when that is!
What are the hours of the venue (not the event)? This is key for convention centers!
What is around the event venue? Good stops for a lunch break? A morning coffee? Post-event dinner?
1. Know how you are going to get there
Hopefully, this one will not take too much effort but be sure to consider your options. For most events, the optimal plan will be driving/flying to a hotel/Airbnb and then walking to the venue if it's close enough.
If you're taking your own vehicle, get it serviced well before you need to leave.
Don't forget to consider trains, buses, and other public transportation options. Hotels and Airbnbs are usually the play while considering what is closest, but sometimes staying with a friend/fellow player can be the best of all worlds!
2. Have cushion for your budget
Whether it's changing plans for dinner, someone drops from your hotel group, or a vendor is selling merch that you just have to have, plan some grace in your budget. If having an extra meal on the road suddenly turns the trip into one that you cannot afford, then you can't afford it currently. If you can go over budget a bit without it turning into a stress fest, you're all set.
3. Travel with friends!
This one is probably the biggest no-brainer of the list and for good reason! Traveling with friends is easier, cheaper, and more fun! Share this blog post with them so you can all be on the same page (wink wink)!
4. Buy flights, hotels, and/or tickets early
Not only is this always cheaper, but the preparation for an event is a large undertaking. Anything you can get done earlier should be done earlier.
5. Plan enough time
If you are planning to arrive at your event 30 minutes before registration closes, you are one flat tire away from a ruined experience. If you must arrive the same day, aim to get there 15 minutes before registration opens. This will give you time to get settled, figure out the parking if needed, and not worry about the lines or if you're going to be late or not. If your time and budget allow it, I highly recommend getting there the day before your event. More time to decompress with friends/fellow players after travel is always a huge benefit before the big day.
6. Pack light but not too light!
If you are flying, do everything in your power to fit everything into carry-on.
I don't care if you've never had bag issues in 10 years of travel. I don't care if you're flying ultra-budget mode, where you pay extra for seatbelts. Keep your travel to a carry-on. Mistakes happen every day with airline baggage. Don't let this be an opportunity to lose your event before it starts.
I have two other packing tips I want to suggest. Use a list! As mentioned in my practice post, the human memory generally sucks. Make note of what you need to bring. Also, bring a smaller bag/backpack to have with you on the day of play. A big luggage bag is unnecessary space-wise and really inconvenient for navigating a big gaming space.
My favorite kind of game day bag!
A bag like this is perfect. Hands-free, compact but still enough to hold your essentials, and during travel it folds down into a very small size!
Okay, so what do I pack? Think of this not as an exhaustive list, but as a grouping of categories to get you thinking:
Clothes (mind the weather!)
Game materials (and backups!)
A small notepad and pen. Even if you don't take notes for the games themselves, this is almost certain to come in handy at some point. Also, maybe a second pen.
Your game-day bag
Toiletries (don't forget daily medications!)
Snacks and water, or a water bottle
Wallet, Keys, Phone (and charger), ID, Passport (if needed), and any registration proof you need
Cash (some vendors and restaurants require this and it's just good sense in case you find yourself unable to use a card for some reason)
Finally, if you can pack what you need and still have space in your bag for extras that's even better. For 100% of events I've attended, I've come home with more stuff than I left with. 100%. Just be ready for that.
7. Be mindful of the weather and be comfortable
When you're in the planning steps, look up historical weather data for your event location to get a sense of the usual temperatures. When you are a few days away, look up the 10-day forecast to see what you're likely up against. Unless your tournament is in the desert or directly inside the airport, bring an umbrella. You can buy a nice compact one for cheap that won't dominate your whole bag space. Outside of that, the goal is to BE COMFORTABLE. You're going to be harnessing your A-game for several hours at a time if not all day. Be mindful of the weather and also be aware that a crowded venue is much warmer than outside.
8. Don't rely on your phone
Traveling in the modern day is made so much easier when we can take care of preparation on our phones. Everything from event registration to hotels and rental cars can all be done with a tool that most of us carry at all times. The convenience is unmatched, except when it isn't.
To put it flatly, you simply don't know when you'll be without phone battery or phone signal. If you're traveling outside of the country, you typically can't rely on your phone anyway. If you happen to be in a convention center for multiple days with thousands of gamers, it would be foolish to assume your phone is always going to pull through for you. Here is a short list of things I would recommend having on printed paper, just in case!
A map of the venue
Directions from where you're staying to the venue
Key times for your itinerary
Deck Lists, team sheets, or other relevant information for your game (even if it's usually done digitally)
Flight information
If you can't get all of this printed out, you could also save screenshots to your phone of key information. It still won't do you any good if your phone dies, but it will be handy if you find yourself without a phone signal.
9. Know where you want to eat
The time will inevitably come when games are done for the day, it's time to grab dinner, and no one in your group of 10 will have strong opinions on where to go eat. Maybe they're all easygoing, or perhaps no one can muster another decision after giving their best gaming all day. Look up nearby food places ahead of time and pick a few of your favorites. There's a good chance you'll get to eat where you want and that's a nice bonus!
10. Know how to beat jetlag
Jetlag is the number-one killer of international tournament runs.
When I went to Germany (not for gaming), I left the USA in the middle of the day and arrived in Germany in the late morning. I couldn't sleep on the plane at the appropriate time, so I was zombie-tired. I did my best to fight through sleepiness by sheer force of will and my Nintendo 3DS. At about 8 pm I dropped dead and slept until about 10 am. When I woke up that second day, I was fine and stayed fine for my week overseas!
This is the key to beating jetlag. You have to stay up. Plan activities for your first day, and bring an extra thing to do. Get up on your feet and take a walk. Get some coffee, and then get some more coffee if needed. If you can power through day 1 and get to bed at an early but reasonable time, you should be good to go for the rest of your trip.
This Friday for post number six, I'll be talking about something very controversial. Luck.
The Gambler's Fallacy: Understanding Luck in Gaming is up next!
GL;HF
-- Joshua (Bauerdad)
Part 6: The Gambler's Fallacy: Understanding Luck in Gaming
The Gambler's Fallacy is the belief that certain random events are less likely to happen based on events that already happened.
If you were to flip 5 coins and they all turned up heads, how likely do you think it is that the next coin you flip is heads?
The probability of the next coin being "heads" is simply 50-50. If you instead believe that the chances are "very unlikely", the Gambler's Fallacy is tripping you up!
The sixth post in my Gaming Blog Series is here and we are talking about everyone's (least) favorite topic - Luck!
If you've been gaming for any amount of time, you have had some experiences where it feels like Lady Luck is condemning you; specifically you and no one else. Your opponent had exactly one card in their deck that wins them the game, and they drew it. Maybe it's curtains for them, until they land a key critical hit that turns the game around. This can even happen in games without random chance in the game itself. Maybe you play chess and the one person who can beat you the easiest just so happens to be early in your bracket every time.
It's a perfectly normal feeling to think the cards are stacked against you. But it's also not real. Luck-based events in games are a huge source of emotions (both positive and negative). Because of this, gamers develop ideas that are incorrect at best and damaging at worst. Today, my goal is to step through some of these myths and truths about the role that luck really plays on our gaming journeys.
The chance is the chance is the chance
Regardless of whether or not game designers reveal the exact odds for random chance in their games, dedicated nerds can typically extract the math and reveal those values to the general public.
In the case of the Pokémon video games, the accuracy of moves is known to players. In parts of 2021 and 2022, the Sword and Shield video games were the competitive standard. The flagship legendary Pokémon from Sword, Zacian, was a dominant force in this tournament format. A popular (and sometimes heartbreaking) move available to Zacian is the Fairy-Type move Play Rough. Play Rough packs a punch but has an accuracy of 90%. This means that without special abilities or accuracy modifiers Play Rough misses 10% of the time.
Given Zacian's position in the metagame and the popularity of Play Rough as a move, we've had plenty of opportunities to see it on "the big stage" of Regional/National events. Most of the time we watch it unceremoniously knock out its target (Zacian has a massive attack stat). However, very occasionally (about 10% of the time!) Play Rough misses its mark. Players remember the big misses. Spectators remember those big misses. After all, it only happens 10% of the time.
There was an alarming amount of people on Twitter who insisted that Play Rough's accuracy is less than 90. It's not. It's 90.
Play Rough's accuracy is still 90 even if you missed it twice in a row. It's still 90 if you missed 3 times in a row! It's still 90 when it causes you a game and it's still 90 even if your favorite player got eliminated in a playoff match due to a Play Rough miss. The chance is the chance is the chance.
There is always balance
This is a necessary conclusion from my first point, but it is critically important that we embrace it and remind ourselves of it regularly.
For every time you feel cheated because of a random event, there will be another time where randomness bailed you out of a loss.
Generalizing the prior example, everyone knows those people. They're the ones who insist that their luck is exceptionally bad, and they can never catch a break. It's all in their heads, and they are choosing not to focus on what they can control. I cover this at length at the end of this post.
Luck always matters less than you think it does
In the summer of 2006, Wizards of the Coast released a new miniatures game called Dreamblade. It was described by early fans as "a cross between Magic: The Gathering and Chess, but also with dice". Players praised the strategic elements, but many critics claimed that "too much" was decided on luck.
Many old tournament results (including my own) have been lost to time, but the players that were performing well in the inaugural Dreamblade competition at GenCon Indy continued to perform well at later large tournaments. This guy Ed at my local Dreamblade events always seemed to win, if not make it to top 4. Surely a dice-based game like this wouldn't have so much consistency in results, right?
As it turns out, Dreamblade is not as luck-based as people initially assumed.
I'm going to step back into Pokémon (both video games and the TCG) for a moment to illustrate another point. Anyone who has played these games (or even just any card game) has been in a situation where "it's come down to the last turn and if I just get X, I win". A key miss or a lucky draw/critical hit decides the game.
Most people in this situation will focus on the closing moments of the game and incorrectly attribute the entire game (or best-of-3 set) to the final turn. Then they decide that their opponent (or they themselves) "just got lucky".
There are two problems with this line of thinking:
It disregards every other decision made by both players over the course of play. Ignoring 95% of the gameplay to focus on the end will never tell you the full story.
Chalking up games to "luck" in this way robs the player of any opportunity to get better. After all, if they just got a lucky break, why scrutinize my own gameplay?
Games are never only decided by the final turn. Never.
My absolute worst bout of luck is by far this TikTok Clip:
Joshua (@bauerdadvgc) | TikTok
Video Spoilers (click to reveal)
The chances to lose your turn due to being "fully paralyzed" is 1 in 4. The chances of this happening 7 times in a row are worse than being struck by lightning. If I had gotten even one chance to attack the Zygarde I likely would have won this game.
It would be EASY to see that clip and think "wow, Bauerdad got scammed". I didn't not get scammed, but suffering at the hands of random chance doesn't excuse me from the less-than-great decisions I made in the middle of that game. I talk more about it in a YouTube video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MywapnqxcxQ
If you ever find yourself finishing a game that came down to the wire (win or lose), don't waste the opportunity to reflect on what happened in the beginning and the middle!
Your reliance on luck depends on your strategy
I've spent the entire rest of this post talking about how luck is static, balanced, and fair. How are we meant to change luck's impact on us if we cannot control it? The answer to this is: we kind of can.
Now, before you throw out the rest of this page, consider the following two Pokémon cards:
The Poké Ball card allows you to retrieve any Pokémon from your deck, but only if you successfully "hit" a coin toss (50% chance). Half the time, you're just throwing away the card. The Great Ball card has a smaller payoff (your choice between the 7 cards atop your deck) but the only chance of a total miss is if you happen to pick up 7 cards that are ALL not Pokémon.
While the Great Ball still has some luck involved, it's generally better than getting nothing half of the time, and there's also a chance you get the thing you would have wanted with the Poké Ball anyway!
Or if you absolutely cannot afford to not get the Pokémon you need when you need it.....
Just toss out two extra cards and you'll never rely on luck again!
This is just one example from a card game, but there are a multitude of other ways you can make sure your decks are as consistent as possible by minimizing the impact of luck.
Going back to the Pokémon video games, we see another opportunity to minimize luck. Consider the following Pokémon moves:
Thunderbolt, Flamethrower, and Ice Beam all have 90 power, making them solid options for dealing damage. However, each of these moves has a stronger counterpart. Blizzard might be more tempting to use than Ice Beam, but you are holding yourself to 70% accuracy. Almost one-third of the time your Blizzard is going to hit thin air.
In cases where you really need the extra punch, you might have to just risk the lower accuracy. However, if you are seeking to minimize the amount of impact luck has on you, stick with the 90-power options.
(If you're feeling spicy, you can try Fire Blast. 85 accuracy is still decent, just don't tell the Zacian players.)
Your reliance on luck greatly depends on your strategy. When you minimize the events that are determined by luck, you give more opportunity for strategy and skill to shine. When you practice strategizing and honing your skills, you will notice that consistency is key. You'll also know when banking your strategy on luck is necessary.
As much as we sometimes hate it, luck is an important and exciting part of many games. While it is typically best to try and minimize it as best we can with our choices, we usually can't eliminate it. Having a proper understanding of luck is essential to a healthy gaming mindset. My hope is that this post helps with that.
My second-to-last post is coming on Monday (hopefully). Before the grand finale, I'll be covering a few smaller ideas that don't fit into their own blog post.
The Grab Bag: Extra Ideas to Enhance Your Play is coming next!
See you then! GL;HF!
-- Joshua (Bauerdad)
Part 7: The Grab Bag: Extra Tips to Enhance Your Play
Happy Monday, gamers! It's time for my penultimate post! Before covering the most important topic this Friday, I want to take the opportunity to make some honorable mentions! This is The Grab Bag: Extra Tips to Enhance Your Play. In today's post, you'll find a handful of things that were a little too short to post alone, but that I still think are worth saying! Let's get on to it!
Today I'm hoping to add a few extra tools to your toolkit!
1. Watch the Pros - Understand the "whats" and the "whys"
Many gamers understand that in order to pave their way to success, they should take advice from the pros. Taking tried and true strategies from professional players is an excellent way to get better yourself.
Back in my early Duel Masters days, you could not simply go on YouTube and look up video essays on strategies by seasoned pros. Online forums would post deck lists from the top-performing players of major tournaments. If we were really lucky, said players would add some notes online as to how their deck was meant to be played. I selected one such deck to make for myself, simply because I had all of the cards required to recreate it.
It sucked. Like, really bad.
But more accurately, I sucked at using it. The problem is that I took a winning deck and expected to just win in spite of the fact that I hadn't had any practice playing most of the cards in the deck, not to mention the fine-tuned cohesive unit put together by this other player.
Don't make the mistake of assuming that using the pro's strategies will always get you good results. It is equally important to understand why they work and why they are good strategies. If you can't explain your adopted strategy in your own words you need to keep studying it.
2. You don't need any 80-20 matchups
If you aren't a fighting game player, this terminology might be unfamiliar to you but the ideas should not be. Victories are victories whether they are won by 1 point or 30 points. It doesn't matter if you won by half a second or two minutes. It doesn't matter if you demolished them without taking damage or if you were only one hit away from losing yourself. Victories are victories.
Card games are a great example of this. If you have a deck that beats strategy A and B, but loses to strategy C, you are naturally going to want to focus on beating strategy C. In order to do this, you will need to make some adjustments to your deck, gameplay, or possibly both. Especially if C has been a thorn in your side for a while the temptation might be to utilize the best cards possible to crush strategy C and never lose to it again. Problem solved!
But what happens if your anti-C adjustments suddenly turn A into a losing matchup when you used to beat it? What if you dedicate so many resources to beating C that your deck doesn't function as fluidly as it could in its games?
Be careful not to overcorrect against a certain problem strategy at the detriment to what you're already good against. You don't have to demolish C. You need to adjust only enough to give yourself an edge to beat it. In my opinion, you should fine tune your strategies to have the highest number of "good" matchups. It doesn't matter if they're all 60-40 or even 55-45. Some players will even decide that 50-50 is good enough and simply dedicate lots of practice to outplaying that strategy.
3. Have a Silly Strategy to Decompress With
We all have those moments where we want to keep playing games but are a little bit burnt out on the "hardcore" practice for the highest level of play. Or maybe you got creamed one too many times on the in-game ladder and just need to let loose with something else.
In Starcraft 2 (a real-time strategy war game, for the uninitiated), there are special units called Dark Templar. They are incredibly powerful, and they are cloaked. This means that, without special abilities or tools on the opposing team, Dark Templar are free to ruin lives and claim victories.
Whenever I was feeling burnt out or frustrated with Starcraft, I would simply queue up another game and try to get Dark Templars on my team as fast as possible. The downside is that rushing Dark Templars leaves me very open to a multitude of other types of attacks. The upside is, you can win in a matter of minutes if you get lucky or catch your opponent off guard. If you win, hey that was satisfying! And if you lose, you were just Dark Templar rushing. You can't expect too much!
Having an off-brand strategy or character to use to unwind is a great benefit!
4. Gimmicks are Not Skill
You know what I'm talking about. A lot of games have one of those strategies or moves that only work if your opponent doesn't see it coming. Depending on your community, you may refer to these as gimmicks, cheese, Bo1 only, or joke strategies. They can (and do) work, but if your primary strategy hinges your success on a gap in your opponent's knowledge? You're going to have a bad time trying to stick with it.
Be aware of gimmicks, use them sparingly, and never build your main strategy around one.
5. The Rules are the Rules
The most exciting games are often the ones that have dozens of strategies to choose from. In the case of Pokémon, you have over a thousand characters at your disposal! In order for games to be interesting, these strategies have to differ from each other in some way. A necessary conclusion here is that some strategies will be better than others.
Boo! Incineroar! (Credit Serebii.net)
Inevitably, you'll find people on Discord and Twitter and Facebook and whatever else that certain characters or strategies are "broken" (meaning, unfair). I implore you, fellow gamers and competitive hopefuls, stop being such a big crybaby.
Here's a "Wah"burger to go with your French Cries
Not only does this (almost) never accomplish anything of substance, but it also robs you of your agency to do something about it. The game is the game and the rules are the rules. Quit whining and get with the program. Here is my tried-and-true method for dealing with "unfair" strategies:
Use it yourself. You'll find two things happen when you do this:
You'll more effectively understand what beats the unfair strategy
You'll find that the strategy is probably not as broken as you think it is
6. Playtesting is King
Any good competitive gaming group or community will be discussing strategies, both current and potentially new. As you get more skilled at your chosen game you will get better at predicting things that probably work vs things that will probably not work. But games are complicated and have many variables that go into them! A character that looks incredible with the DLC patch notes might actually be really underwhelming in practice. A card that looks awful on paper might hit a specific need of a particular deck that catapults it to a Tier 1 strategy.
If you come up with an idea that you're pretty sure about, actually play it and see if it passes muster before dedicating more to perfecting it. If you come up with a neat idea that you think has promise (and maybe it's only you), don't let anyone talk you out of it before you have had a chance to actually take it for a spin. You might come up with the next big idea to shift a metagame!
7. If It Ain't Broke, Don't Fix It!
...except I actually hate this advice and don't believe in it. In order to hit the highest level of competitive play, gamers have to be confident in their strategies, cards, characters, you name it. Shoring up weak points is often the most effective way to spend your time and practice, but be very careful of finding a solution and then shelving that problem as "solved". Games change and evolve over time as people play them, and that always includes updates to optimal strategies. Consider Super Smash Bros. Melee. This game has been around for nearly 25 years and yet the strategies and techniques continue to evolve year after year. It's why a dedicated community for this game still exists in spite of having no updates to its 2001 release.
The real advice is: You can probably improve upon what already works.
That's it for today! This Friday will be the final post of my competitive gaming blog. I'll be talking about the most important topic of all! You!
Healthy Gaming Habits: Maintaining Physical and Mental Wellbeing
The grand finale is up next! See you soon!
GL;HF;
-- Joshua (Bauerdad)
Part 8: Healthy Gaming Habits: Maintaining Physical and Mental Wellbeing
There is one final topic that is more important than goal setting, proper practice, learning, or anything else I've covered in the blog thus far.
You!
No matter what goals you have, you will have to engage your mind and your body to see them come to fruition. This isn't just gaming goals - it's any goal. Taking care of your mind and body will take you further than any other advice. If you don't take the time and effort to take care of yourself, the consequences can be disastrous...
In the summer before I left for college, our gaming group (and moms) were driving up to Kansas City from Austin, Texas. The goal was to attend a Dreamblade 10K tournament AND a 1K in the same weekend. The plan was to spend Friday driving, and sleep at the hotel Friday night. The 10K was Saturday and the 1K was Sunday. We hadn't planned when to go home yet because of course we didn't.
Sleep
I don't recall exactly how we messed up so poorly, but the 11-hour drive that should have taken us "a day", ended up taking us closer to eighteen hours. We didn't arrive at our hotel until 6am ON the day of the 10K and none of us had slept a wink. Our parents effectively paid that first "night" just so we could sleep a single hour before go time.
Part of me wanted to skip the whole tournament just to sleep more
If you've ever been up for an extended time and then got a tiny nap, you almost certainly felt like the sleep you got wasn't even worth it. This was exactly my experience but also while feeling like I got hit with baseball bats.
The biggest thing to understand about sleep is how important it is to so many aspects of gaming. Spatial reasoning, reaction times, reasoning, strategic thinking, energy levels, alertness, short- and long-term memory, and even hunger regulation are all impacted by how well you rest the night before. Staying up too late to get extra practice sounds good on paper, but you should always opt for the extra sleep whenever possible. Ideally, you need to be comfortable enough with what you're doing so that you don't have to be cramming the night before. I highly recommend spending that time socializing with friends instead. But still, you can't be up too late.
Some of you might be tempted to pipe in here and say "But Josh, I know this player who came to an event on 30 minutes of sleep with a deck he built 3 days ago, and he won the whole thing so this advice sucks"
Wrong.
The whole reason stories like this are cool are because they were victorious in spite of the difficulties. Why on earth would you justify an all-nighter just because somebody you know won an event like that? Get some sleep.
Food
Game day snacks are essential to a successful event. Healthy ones like fruits and nuts are even better at boosting your performance while keeping hunger at bay. The best foods are the ones that travel well, are easy to eat, and have the right nutrients. High-protein snacks with healthy fats are a good blend of energy and fill while fruits are tasty and give a good boost of energy and vitamins.
Aside from snacks, make it a priority to get a healthy breakfast. Basically, the same stuff that makes a good snack will also be good for your breakfast. Something with protein is the most important benchmark to hit. If you're the sort that needs coffee to get up in the morning, have one. There aren't any specific benefits to this beyond keeping you in your morning routine. Caffeine headaches are no joke so if you're used to a cup in the morning, continue to do that.
Staying hydrated is another key, especially if your event is athletic or outdoors. If you're normally someone who is bad about drinking water, make it a point to track your water intake for a week before the event. It can be tricky to drink enough to stay hydrated but not so much that you're constantly running for the bathroom. Even mild dehydration can negatively impact you in almost all the same ways that sleep deprivation does. Make sure you know where the bathrooms are and drink up!
Given our intense schedule shift, we didn't get any opportunity to get decent food. There was but a single option that was somewhat close to the hotel...
If "better than starving" were a sign
Disclaimer: I like McDonald's a ton. The fries are amazing and sometimes nothing else hits quite the same. However, I can't recommend anything less for game day prep. But alas, this is what we had. During event registration my mom made a food run and came back with two bags full of double cheeseburgers. For the entire day of play, we just subsisted on cheeseburgers. They tasted good (at first), and we didn't go hungry. Unfortunately, the list of benefits comes to a screeching halt after that.
This is a time in my life when I had not yet realized I was lactose intolerant, so you know how my day played out.
Emotion
Before you hear about how my 10K ended, I want to briefly discuss the impact of emotions in gaming, especially anger. Emotional responses in games (and in life) are super normal. Oftentimes we are trying to put our best forward into a situation where there is only one winner. It's very natural that hard losses or exciting wins can bring out extreme reactions of us. I'm very level-headed when it comes to my games. If you find it difficult to control your emotional response, here is a short list of ideas to help you be more centered.
Learn (and do) some simple breathing exercises. This has the added benefit of calming general nerves.
Heed all of the other advice in this article. Emotions are heightened when we are not physically taken care of.
Remember that results don't define you. The best of the best has bad days, and the bottom of the barrel sometimes rises up! Couching your identity in a tournament performance is a very quick way to emotional turmoil.
As an addendum to the above point. Your chosen game also doesn't define you. Be wary not to give too much of your identity over to a game that you play. Sometimes a short (or extended) break from a game can help you feel better and enjoy the game more when you come back.
Seek therapy. Even if you don't struggle with an anger management issue, therapy is excellent for emotional processing and will help you be more grounded in all areas of your life. More people should try it out!
Remember that games are meant to be fun. If you find yourself rarely having fun, then you might simply be in the wrong game/hobby.
So, What Happened?
I've spent this post talking about the ways in which you can take care of your mind and body for gaming. I've also been setting the stage for the Kansas City Dreamblade 10K. So, what happened? In order to explain my tournament performance, I need to first explain how a turn of Dreamblade works.
Dreamblade is a miniatures/dice game played on a 5x5 grid. During each turn, players start by adding minis to the grid according to a die roll from both players. Higher rolls in general mean more powerful minis for players to put into play. In addition to this, players who had minis defeated the prior turn get +2 points per mini defeated. This allows players who lost a skirmish to bounce back the following turn. After this phase (called the Spawn Phase), the player with the higher roll gets to move/attack first. Then the other player gets to respond with their own move/attack options. Finally, the turn is awarded to the player who performed better (a point system whose details don't matter for the story).
The Dreamblade 10K had about 100 people. We played several rounds of Swiss and then had a single-elimination bracket with the best 8 players. And guess who was sitting in 8th when it was time for the playoffs to start? Me!
Now you might be thinking: "Wait a minute. You're over here preaching mind and body when you just got no rest, ate McDonald's all day, had no water, and you cut Top 8 anyway?" Yes. But I'm not finished.
My Top 8 match started with me turning a slight edge into a much larger one. I was maintaining a stronger army while also controlling the most important places on the board. All I had to do was not make any huge mistakes and victory would be mine, along with passage into the semifinals.
My opponent had just made a big swing against me, taking a sizeable chunk of my army with him. Fine by me, because I can put those extra spawn points into my most powerful piece!
This thing is so strong, it can deal overflow damage to extra enemies around it. It also costs 13 points to summon.
Once I get the drake in, it's curtains for that guy. We roll for spawn, and I have plenty for my drake make an appearance even with a small supporting cast. The game was mine. I was pushing through drowsiness, dehydration, and questionable food choices into my best tournament run of all time. I had already locked in 500 bucks for Top 8 with potentially ten times that in my future if I can bring home the gold.
and then I skipped my own spawn phase.
I don't even have a caption. This was by FAR my biggest gaming mistake of all time.
You know you messed up when the crowd gasps. I didn't summon my drake. I threw away the extra spawn points I had from losing some of my army. I snatched my own game from the jaws of victory, and I have no idea what possessed me to do it.
I feel confident I could have won this 10K. My warband was fine-tuned. My strategies were endlessly practiced against gifted players. I knew the ins and outs of the best pieces and anything that could threaten my gameplans.
And none of that was enough to override the insane treatment I was giving myself before and during the event. I tossed what was (at that point) a FREE win entirely and fully because I was not taking care of myself. I don't remember anything about the rest of that day. The deep embarrassment is something that I wouldn't wish on anyone. Thankfully we all went back to the hotel room where I actually got some rest. The next day I came back to the 1K and got Top 4! Never forget that you have to take care of yourself. Burning the midnight oil to practice is not "pro". Skipping meals during your local tournament doesn't make you hardcore. Spending 12 hours a day in a computer chair, training for your next tournament doesn't make you dedicated. Don't skip proper sleep for practice. Don't forgo a healthy meal for "one more match". Don't neglect to move your body to keep the gaming momentum going. All of these things make you worse.
I hope you enjoyed my blog on Competitive Gaming! I've had a lot of fun sharing my insights and stories. I hope you enjoyed reading and that you learned a few things along the way! That's it for now! Go out there, and no matter what your goals are... GL;HF
-- Joshua (Bauerdad)